The question isn't whether quantum computers will break current encryption—it's when. Security experts debate timelines ranging from 5 to 30 years, but one thing is certain: organizations need to prepare now. Let's examine the realistic timeline and what it means for your security strategy.
Current State of Quantum Computing
As of early 2026, the most powerful quantum computers have around 1,000-1,500 qubits. IBM, Google, and others continue making steady progress. However, there's a crucial distinction between physical qubits and logical qubits:
- Physical qubits: The actual quantum bits, prone to errors and decoherence
- Logical qubits: Error-corrected qubits that can perform reliable computations
Breaking RSA-2048 requires approximately 4,000 logical qubits. Current error correction ratios suggest this needs millions of physical qubits—a significant engineering challenge.
Expert Timeline Predictions
Various experts and organizations have offered predictions:
Timeline Estimates
Optimistic (for attackers): 5-10 years
Moderate consensus: 10-15 years
Conservative: 15-30 years
NSA guidance: Transition by 2035
The Global Risk Institute surveys quantum computing experts annually. Their 2025 survey found a median estimate of 15% probability of cryptographically relevant quantum computers by 2030, rising to 50% by 2035.
The "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" Threat
Perhaps more concerning than the timeline itself is the "harvest now, decrypt later" attack vector. Adversaries—including nation-states—are already collecting encrypted data with the intention of decrypting it once quantum computers are available.
Consider data with long-term sensitivity:
- Medical records (sensitive for decades)
- Financial transactions (legally retained for years)
- Government communications (classified for 25+ years)
- Intellectual property (competitive value for years)
- Personal communications (privacy expectations persist)
If your data has value beyond 5-10 years, it's already at risk from future quantum attacks.
What's Driving Progress?
Several factors are accelerating quantum computing development:
- Government investment: Billions in funding from US, China, EU, and others
- Private sector: Tech giants competing for quantum advantage
- New approaches: Topological qubits, photonic computing, and other innovations
- Error correction advances: Steady improvements in qubit stability
Why Start Migration Now?
Even with a 10-15 year timeline, starting your post-quantum migration today is essential:
- Migration takes time: Large organizations need 5-10 years to fully transition
- Testing and validation: New algorithms need thorough vetting in your environment
- Supply chain: Your vendors and partners need to migrate too
- Regulatory requirements: Compliance mandates are emerging now
- Unknown unknowns: Quantum computing could advance faster than expected
Recommended Actions
Regardless of the exact timeline, these steps will prepare your organization:
- Inventory all cryptographic assets and dependencies
- Classify data by sensitivity and longevity
- Begin pilot projects with post-quantum algorithms
- Implement crypto-agility to enable faster future transitions
- Monitor NIST standards and industry developments
The quantum threat timeline may be uncertain, but the need to act is not. Organizations that begin their post-quantum journey now will be best positioned to weather the quantum transition, whenever it arrives.
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